Vot econòmic de segon ordre en les eleccions al Parlament Europeu
Resum
En estudiar el comportament dels ciutadans en les eleccions al Parlament Europeu (PE), les eleccions de segon ordre (SOE) i el vot econòmic (EV) s'han ignorat com a tradicions alienes. No obstant això, no haurien de considerar-se incompatibles: els votants poden utilitzar les eleccions al PE per a recolzar els titulars nacionals però, al mateix temps, aquest suport pot ser el resultat d'una avaluació econòmica. En aquest treball es combinen les dues tradicions i es constata que, encara que les eleccions al PE no tinguin per objecte avaluar la política nacional, els votants les utilitzen per a recompensar o castigar els titulars nacionals (és a dir, SOE) per l'estat de l'economia (és a dir, EV), un comportament que aquí es denomina "vot econòmic de segon ordre". El predomini del VE de segon ordre és rellevant per a la política de la UE. Si les eleccions al PE augmenten la responsabilitat dels titulars nacionals mentre l'executiu europeu segueix sense ser reconegut, això podria ser pertorbador per a les institucions econòmiques europees.
Paraules clau
eleccions europees, eleccions de segon ordre, vot econòmic, rendició de comptesReferències
Anderson, Cameron D. (2006). “Economic voting and multilevel governance: A comparative individual‐level analysis”. American Journal of Political Science, 50, 449–463. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00194.x
Anderson, Christopher J. and Ward, Daniel S. (1996). “Barometer elections in comparative perspective”. Electoral Studies, 15, 447–460. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(95)00056-9
Bernardi, Fabrizio; Chakhaia, Lela and Leopold, Liliya (2017). “‘Sing me a song with social significance’: The (mis)use of statistical significance testing in European sociological research”. European Sociological Review, 33, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcw047
Bosch, Agustí (2016). “Types of economic voting in regional elections: The 2012 Catalan election as a motivating case”. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 26, 115–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2015.1119153
Bosch, Agustí (2024). Data appendices to a research on second-order economic voting in elections to the European Parliament [online]. https://ddd.uab.cat/record/287520
Braun, Daniela (2021). “The Europeanness of the 2019 European Parliament elections and the mobilising power of European issues”. Politics, 41, 451–466. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395721992930
Clark, Nicholas (2014). “The EU’s information deficit: Comparing political knowledge across levels of governance”. Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 15, 445–463. https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2014.896158
Dassonneville, Ruth; Jabbour, Alexandra and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2021). “More ‘Europe’, less democracy? European integration does not erode satisfaction with democracy”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102291
Döring, Holger and Manow, Philip (2018). Parliaments and Governments Database (ParlGov): Information on parties, elections and cabinets in modern democracies. Version September 2018. Available at: www.parlgov.org
Duch, Raymond M. and Stevenson, Randolph T. (2008). The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755934
Ehin, Piret and Talving, Liisa (2021). “Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and Euroscepticism”. Politics, 41, 467–485. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395720986026
Elwert, Felix and Winship, Christopher (2014). “Endogenous selection bias: The problem of conditioning on a collider variable. Annual Review of Sociology, 40, 31–53. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-071913-043455
European Commission (2021). “Former Colleges of Commissioners”. https://ec.europa.eu/info/about-european-commission/visit-european-commission/libraries-and-archives/former-colleges-commissioners_en . Accessed 22/2/2021.
Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2011). “Second-Order Elections and Economic Voting: The French Regional Example”. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 3, 369–384. https://doi.org/10.1426/36011
Fernández-Albertos, José (2012). “Las elecciones europeas y la economía: ¿Son estas elecciones referéndums sobre los gobiernos nacionales?” In: Font, J. and Torcal, M. (eds.), Elecciones Europeas 2009, Madrid: CIS.
Fraile, Marta and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2014). “Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011”. European Journal of Political Research, 53 (1), 160–179. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12018
Gattermann, Katjana; de Vreese, Claes H. and van der Brug, Wouter (2021). “Introduction to the special issue: No longer second-order? Explaining the European Parliament elections of 2019”. Politics, 41, 423–432. https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957211035096
Gélineau, François and Bélanger, Éric (2005). “Electoral accountability in a federal system: National and provincial economic voting in Canada”. Publius, 35, 407–424. https://doi.org/10.1093/publius/pji028
Goodhart, Charles A.E. and Bhansali, Rajendra J. (1970). “Political economy”. Political Studies, 18, 43–106. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9248.1970.tb00659.x
Hellevik, Ottar (2009). “Linear versus logistic regression when the dependent variable is a dichotomy”. Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, 43, 59–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-007-9077-3.
Heyne, Lea and Lobo, Marina Costa (2021). “Technocratic attitudes and voting behaviour ten years after the Eurozone crisis: Evidence from the 2019 EP elections”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102288
Hobolt, Sara B. and de Vries, Catherine (2016). “Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections”. Electoral Studies, 44, 504–514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.006
Hobolt, Sara B. and Tilley, James (2014). “Who’s in charge? How voters attribute responsibility in the European Union”. Comparative Political Studies, 47, 795–819. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414013488549
Hobolt, Sara B.; Tilley, James and Wittrock, Jill (2013). “Listening to the government: How information shapes responsibility attributions”. Political Behavior, 35, 153–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-011-9183-8
Jastramskis, Mažvydas (2014). “Learning the economic vote at local elections: Case of Lithuania, 1995-2011”. Baltic Journal of Political Science, 3, 100–112. https://doi.org/10.15388/BJPS.2014.3.4868
Kousser, Thad (2004). “Retrospective voting and strategic behavior in European Parliament elections”. Electoral Studies, 23, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-3794(02)00030-6
Kramer, Gerald H. (1971). “Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964”. The American Political Science Review, 65, 131–43. https://doi.org/10.2307/1955049
Lee, H; Aronson, J.K. and Nunan, D. (2019).“Collider bias”. Catalogue of Bias. https://catalogofbias.org/biases/collider-bias/
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Lobo, Marina Costa (2017). “The economic vote: Ordinary vs. extraordinary times”. In: Arzheimer, Kai; Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, London: Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957978.n26
Lobo, Marina C. and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2012) “The integration hypothesis: how the European Union shapes economic voting”. Electoral Studies, 31, 522–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.004
Lobo, Marina C. and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2021). “The European Union and political behaviour: The shadow of the Great Recession”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102285
Lobo, Marina C. and Pannico, Roberto (2021). “Do perceptions of EMU alter clarity of responsibility? A comparison of German and Greek electorates”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102287
Magalhaes, Pedro C. (2014). “The elections of the great recession in Portugal: Performance under a blurred responsibility for the economy”. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 24, 180–202. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2013.874352
Magalhaes, Pedro C. (2016). “From ideology to performance: Austerity and government defection in the 2014 European Parliament elections”. Electoral Studies, 44, 492–503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.04.015
Maier, Michaela.; Jalali, Carlos; Maier, Jürgen; Nai, Alessandro and Stier, Sebastian (2021). “When do parties put Europe in the centre? Evidence from the 2019 European Parliament election campaign”. Politics, 41, 433–450. https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957211008348
Martins, Rodrigo and Veiga, Francisco José (2013). “Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections”. Public Choice, 155, 317–334. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2277110
Möhring, Katja (2012). “The fixed effects approach as alternative to multilevel models for cross-national analyses”. GK SOCLIFE Working Paper Series 16. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/3xw7v
Palacios, Irene and Arnold, Christine (2021). “Do Spitzenkandidaten debates matter? Effects on voters’ cognitions and evaluations of candidates and issues”. Politics, 41, 486–503. https://doi.org/10.1177/02633957211015231
Powell Jr., G. Bingham and Whitten, Guy D. (1993). “A cross-national analysis of economic voting: Taking account of the political context”. American Journal of Political Science, 37, 391–414. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111378
Queralt, Didac (2012). “Economic voting in multi-tiered polities”. Electoral Studies, 31, 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.09.002
Reif, Karlheinz and Schmitt, Hermann (1980). “Nine second-order national elections – a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results”. European Journal of Political Research, 8, 3–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1980.tb00737.x
Rodden, Jonathan and Wibbels, Erik (2010). “Dual accountability and the nationalization of party competition: Evidence from four federations”. Party Politics, 17, 629–653. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810376182
Ruiz-Rufino, Ruben (2021). “Financial bailouts and the decline of establishment politics”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102292
Schäfer, Constantin (2021). “Indifferent and Eurosceptic: The motivations of EU-only abstainers in the 2019 European Parliament election”. Politics, 41, 522–536. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395720981359
Schakel, Arjan H. (2015). “How to analyze second-order election effects? A refined second-order election model”. Comparative European Politics, 13, 636–655. https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2014.16
Schmitt, Hermann and Teperoglou, Eftichia (2017). “The study of less important elections”. In: Arzheimer, Kai; Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour, London: Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957978.n4
Sorace, Miriam (2021). “Productivity-based retrospective voting: Legislative productivity and voting in the 2019 European Parliament elections”. Politics, 41, 504–521. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395721991403
Stegmaier, Mary; Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Park, Beomseob (2017). “The VP-function: A review. In: Arzheimer, Kai; Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (eds.), The Sage Handbook of Electoral Behaviour. London: Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957978.n25
Talving, Liisa and Vasilopoulou, Sofia (2021). “Linking two levels of governance: Citizens’ trust in domestic and European institutions over time”. Electoral Studies, 70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102289
Tilley, James; Garry, John and Bold, Tessa (2008) “Perceptions and reality: Economic voting at the 2004 European Parliament elections”. European Journal of Political Research, 47, 665–686. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00780.x
Tufte, Edward R. (1975). “Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections”. The American Political Science Review, 69, 812–826. https://doi.org/10.2307/1958391
Tufte, Edward R. (1978). Political control of the economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv15r5816
Van der Brug, Wouter; Popa, Sesbastian Adrian; Hobolt, Sara B. and Schmitt, Hermann (2021). “Illiberal democratic attitudes and support for the EU”. Politics, 41, 537–561. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395720975970
Van der Brug, Wouter; van Der Eijk, Cees and Franklin, Mark (2007). The economy and the vote: Economic conditions and elections in fifteen countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511618857
Publicades
Descàrregues
Drets d'autor (c) 2024 Agustí Bosch Gardella
Aquesta obra està sota una llicència internacional Creative Commons Reconeixement-NoComercial 4.0.
