Far away? How misperceived polarization fuels affective polarization in Spain

Abstract

Spain is marked by high levels of affective polarization. Some studies argue that this is the result of increased ideological polarization, while others note the effect of certain issues, as well as the influence of social media, elites, and changes in party supply. In this article we propose another explanation based on the effect of (mis)perceptions. Firstly, we show that individuals with a more unrealistic perception of a party’s ideological position will also develop stronger feelings of antipathy toward that party. Secondly, we show that perceived polarization increases individual affective polarization. Attitudes are influenced by judgments about political reality, which in turn are influenced (and biased) by group identities. Finally, we construct an indicator of false polarization to see to what extent the difference between perceived polarization and actual polarization of the party system informs higher individual levels of affective polarization. We also confirm with this strategy that, as the sense of false polarization grows, so does the dispersion of affect across party groups. In short, this article explores the influence of perceptions on citizens’ attitudes. These perceptions often tend to artificially exaggerate differences with outgroups, which can lead individuals to mistakenly think they have little in common.